Focus On Horses Capable Of Running On Or Near The Lead
There are dozens of books by well-known authors on the subject of speed handicapping. I’ve read many of them. For awhile it was a worthwhile facet of my handicapping. For many years, every good handicapper used speed handicapping to find a winner.
But since the proliferation of computer programs that crank out speed ratings in mere seconds and the inclusion of Beyer Speed Ratings in the Daily Racing Form, the public now over bets horses based on speed. The profits from using speed as a handicapping factor have dwindled, if they haven’t disappeared entirely.
As a result, I almost always ignore speed ratings when handicapping a race. The public generally makes the speed of the race the first or second choice in the wagering. That means the odds are usually too low to make it worth the risk of a wager.
As an an example, let’s look at the first race of the Oak Tree meet at Santa Anita on October 10, 2009. Indian Firewater had the best second call and final call times in his last race out of all eight entries. With Garrett Gomez in the saddle and Bob Baffert for a trainer, he seemed at first glance to be a shoo-in. I’m surprised the final odds were as high as 3/5. They could have easily been lower.
But the speed of the race didn’t win. Indian Firewater, despite all he had going for him, finished second. The winner, Color Of Courage, was overlooked by most of the public at 7/1.
I was able to zero in on this horse because I now focus my attention on factors other than speed. In fact, Color Of Courage had a speed rating in his last race nine points slower than the last race of Indian Firewater.
So what made me think he had a chance to win? In all three of his previous starts Color Of Courage was running near the lead at the second call of a race. And my research has uncovered that most winning horses spend their time on or near the lead.
Color Of Courage not only showed me that, but a couple of other things I like to see. Though he lost by four lengths, Color Of Courage ran an even race despite being bumped early and he closed willingly. That’s always a good sign. His trainer also made a jockey change for this race.
Color of Courage won by 1 3/4 lengths and paid $16.20.
In an ongoing study of running styles (currently encompassing 1466 races), three out of four sprint races and two out of three route races were won by horses on the lead or within three lengths of the leader at the second call of the race. In the shorter sprint races (up to 5 1/2 furlongs), more than 50% of all races were won by the horse on the lead at the second call.
-30-
Gerald Cohail has been handicapping horse races for more than 50 years. To see more of Gerald’s horse racing insights and get your Free copy of “Treat Horse Race Wagering Like A Business” visit HandicappingResearch.com
Comments
Stats