Horse Racing Handicapping Using Speed Figures and Average Speed Figures
Whether you are handicapping harness races or thoroughbred races, speed figures can be very helpful, but also misleading. Just using speed figures alone to pick winners will usually result in long term losses, though they may make a profit on one day or another. Horse races are multi-faceted events that depend on many factors.
You cannot add a column of numbers and come up with the right amount unless you know all the numbers in the column and you cannot handicap a harness race or thoroughbred race without all the factors. Those factors also have to be weighted and the reason that we rely so heavily on speed figures is because they are one of the more important factors.
But how you use speed figures is very important, because they can lead you far astray if you do not know how to compare them. I like to look at speed figures in two different ways.
The first thing I want to know is, “What have you done for me lately?” To answer that question I look at the horse’s latest race and speed figure. Of course, I want to see it on a fast track and preferably the same surface as today’s race. One of the many reasons for that is that a horse that is lame or sore may post a high speed figure on a soft turf course, but do considerably worse on a hard dirt surface. So I like to see a race on the same surface under the same conditions.
My next consideration is whether or not that race was typical of the horse or for some reason, atypical. While Standardbreds and usually more consistent than Thoroughbreds, either breed may have an unusually fast race from time to time based on the trip and other conditions that I may not be aware of. On the other hand, if I see that the speed rating was within the normal to high side of the horse’s usual speed then I know that it was not a fluke.
That is why I like to always compare the last speed rating to the average for the horse over a reasonable period of time. A horse with a speed rating out of its own range will make me dig deeper and occasionally, if I can’t find a suitable reason, I will skip the race. But bear in mind that no matter what the speed figures do show, they are still only a part of the overall picture.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
Bill Peterson is a former horse race owner and professional handicapper. He comes from a horse race handicapping family and as he puts it, “Horse Racing is in my blood.” To see all Bill’s horse racing material go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore.html , Bill’s handicapping store.
Tags: betting system, harness racing, horse racing handicapping, horse racing system, speed figures, thoroughbred racing